Click here to download this table as comma separated values (csv). NOAA’s Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) is a yearly report on the combined influence of long-lived greenhouse gases (atmospheric gases that absorb and radiate heat) on Earth’s surface temperature. Etheridge, D.M., L.P. Steele, R.J. Francey, and R.L. 5.31x10-15M(MN)1.52], C is the CO2 global measured abundance in ppm, M is the same for CH4 in ppb, As expected, CO2 dominates the total forcing with methane and the CFCs becoming relatively smaller contributors to the total forcing over time. Measured global atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases are used to calculate changes in radiative forcing beginning in 1979 when NOAA's global air sampling network expanded significantly. The Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) is a measure of the capacity of Earth’s atmosphere to trap heat as a result of the presence of long-lived greenhouse gases. The role of carbon dioxide in climate forcing from 1979 - 2004: Introduction of the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index. It is based on the highest quality atmospheric observations from sites around the world. Earth System Research Laboratories Methane data before 1983 are annual averages from D. Etheridge [Etheridge et al., 1998], adjusted to the NOAA calibration scale [Dlugokencky et al., 2005]. The Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) is a measure of the capacity of Earth’s atmosphere to trap heat as a result of the presence of long-lived greenhouse gases. Stephen.A.Montzka@noaa.gov. However, climate projections have model uncertainties that overwhelm the uncertainties in greenhouse gas measurements. Masarie, P.M. Lang, A.M. Crotwell1, J.B. Miller, and L.V. Emmons, P.C. Continuing decline in the growth rate of the atmospheric methane burden. Decision makers can use this indicator to inform. These results define atmospheric composition changes going back to 1750 and radiative forcing changes since preindustrial times (Figure 4). Indicator : indicator-annual-greenhouse-gas-index-2020. The five major greenhouse gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gas increases since 1750. Figure 4. Be… Disclaimer  |   An observation or calculation that allows scientists, analysts, decision makers, and others to track environmental trends, understand key factors that influence the environment, and identify effects on ecosystems and society. Observational constraints on recent increases in the atmospheric CH4 burden. Radiative forcing, relative to 1750, due to carbon dioxide alone since 1979. Usa.gov, * annual change (in %) is calculated relative to 1990, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html, https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/. Other spatially heterogeneous, short-lived, climate forcing agents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone, have uncertain global magnitudes and also are not included here to maintain accuracy. Click here to download measured global annual mean dry-air mole fractions used in deriving the radiative forcing values provided in Table 2 and the AGGI. Butler, J.H., M. Battle, M. Bender, S.A. Montzka, A.D. Clarke, E.S. The AGGI is updated each spring when air samples from all over the globe for the previous year have been obtained and analyzed. The decline in the CFCs has tempered the increase in net radiative forcing. To determine the total radiative forcing of the greenhouse gases, we have used IPCC [Ramaswamy et al., 2001] recommended expressions to convert greenhouse gas global abundance changes, relative to 1750, to instantaneous radiative forcing (see Table 1). Atmospheric gas concentrations over the past century measured in air from firn at the South Pole. Thoning, B.D. Most of this increase is related to CO2. Radiative forcing from the sum of observed CFC changes ceased increasing in about 2000 and continued to decline through 2019 [Montzka et al., 2011], despite increases in emissions of CFC-11 in recent years [Montzka et al., 2018]. If the atmospheric concentrations of these gases rise, the average temperature of the lower atmosphere will gradually increase, a phenomenon known as the greenhouse effect. Figure 4 shows radiative forcing for the major gases and a set of 15 minor long-lived halogenated gases (CFC-113, CCl4, CH3CCl3, HCFCs 22, 141b and 142b, HFCs 134a, 152a, 23, 143a, and 125, SF6, and halons 1211, 1301 and 2402). Saltzman, C. Sucher, J. Severinghaus, J.W. In 2019, the AGGI was 1.45, which represents an increase of 45% since 1990. Myers, P.M. Lang, K.A. The Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) is a measure of the capacity of Earth’s atmosphere to trap heat as a result of the presence of long-lived greenhouse gases. The warming influence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased substantially over the last several decades. The atmospheric burden of nitrous oxide continues to increase slowly over time, with an average rate of 1.0 ppb yr-1 over the past decade. Hofmann, D. J., J. H. Butler, E. J. Dlugokencky, J. W. Elkins, K. Masarie, S. A. Montzka, and P. Tans, (2006a). The AGGI is analogous to the dial on an electric blanket. The annual CO2 increase from 1 Jan 2019 to 1 Jan 2020 was 2.64 ± 0.08 ppm (see https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html), which is slightly higher than the average of the previous decade, and much higher than the two decades before that. Since 2004, researchers in NOAA’s Global Monitoring Division have released the Annual Greenhouse Gas Index to compare the total warming effect of heat-trapping gases each year to their 1990 levels. Equivalent CO2 atmospheric amounts (in ppm) are derived with the relationship (Table 1) between CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing from all long-lived greenhouse gases. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases including HCFC-22 and HFC-134a, for which NOAA observations are also shown in the figure (see text). Dlugokencky, E.J., L. Bruhwiler, J.W.C. Weekly data are used from a subset of these sites to create a smoothed north-south latitude profile from which a global average is calculated (Figure 2). James.H.Butler@noaa.gov Global Monitoring Laboratory, Privacy Policy  |   Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which is indexed to 1 for the year 1990, is shown on the right axis. Gatti, (2009). It would include all the important components but not all the components of climate forcing. The uncertainties in the global average abundances of the long-lived greenhouse gases are much smaller (<1%). These five gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. Gases that absorb heat in the atmosphere near the Earth's surface, preventing it from escaping into space. Figure 5. Elkins, and L.P Steele, (2005). In contrast to climate model calculations, the results reported here are based mainly on measurements of long-lived, well-mixed gases and have small uncertainties. The NOAA monitoring program provides high-precision measurements of the global abundance and distribution of long-lived greenhouse gases that are used to calculate changes in radiative climate forcing. Because it is based on the observed amounts of long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, this index contains relatively little uncertainty. The CO2 increase is accelerating — while it averaged about 1.6 ppm per year in the 1980s and 1.5 ppm per year in the 1990s, the growth rate increased to 2.4 ppm per year during the last decade (2009-2019). An index based on the total of these contributions to radiative forcing would be similar to the Consumer Price Index, for example. For 2019, the AGGI was 1.45 (representing an increase in total direct radiative forcing of 45% since 1990). Increases in the abundance of atmospheric greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution are mainly the result of human activity and are largely responsible for the observed increases in global temperature [IPCC 2014]. Figure 3 shows the results for carbon dioxide global monthly averages for 1979-2019. Greenhouse gases include, for example, carbon dioxide, water vapor, and methane. Langenfelds, and R.J. Francey, (1996). Measures to reduce the amount and speed of future climate change by reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases or removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Hall, J.W. Tel: +1 202 223 6262Fax: +1 202 223 3065Privacy Policy. Pre-1978 changes in the CO2-equivalent abundance and AGGI based on the ongoing measurements of all greenhouse gases reported here, measurements of CO2 going back to the 1950s from C.D. The subscript "o" denotes the unperturbed (1750) global abundance, f(M,N) = 0.47ln[1 + 2.01x10-5 (MN)0.75 + Superimposed on this decline is significant interannual variability in growth rates [Dlugokencky et al., 1998, 2003]. The AGGI is a measure of the climate-warming influence of long-lived trace gases and how that influence has changed since the onset of the industrial revolution. Causes for the increase during 2007-2008 included warm temperatures in the Arctic in 2007 and increased precipitation in the tropics during 2007 and 2008 [Dlugokencky et al., 2009]. From 1999 to 2006, the atmospheric CH4 burden was nearly constant, but since 2007, globally averaged CH4 has been increasing again. While the radiative forcing of the long-lived, well-mixed greenhouse gases increased 45% from 1990 to 2019 (by ~0.98 watts m-2), CO2 has accounted for about 80% of this increase (~0.78 watts m-2).

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